⚡ Energy Usage Dashboard
⚡ Electricity
🔥 Gas
Combined Patterns
🌡️ Temperature & Consumption
📊 Consumption Forecast
📊 Monthly Consumption Forecast — Exeter, UK
Select a month, adjust the weather inputs if needed, then click
Calculate to see expected daily consumption with an
approximate 95 % prediction interval.
Model quality: ⚡ Electricity: R² = 0.188 (191 days)
| 🔥 Gas: R² = 0.870 (190 days)
Show fitted model equations ▸
⚡ Electricity
Daily kWh = 7.2981 (intercept)
+ 0.1222 × hdd15 = max(0, 15.5 − mean temp)
− 0.0131 × min temperature (°C)
− 0.0347 × sunshine hours / day
+ 0.0361 × solar noon elevation (°)
+ 0.6290 × sin(2π · month / 12)
+ 2.7609 × cos(2π · month / 12)
R² = 0.188 fitted on 191 days
🔥 Gas
Daily kWh = 6.2729 (intercept)
+ 6.1581 × hdd15 = max(0, 15.5 − mean temp)
+ 0.4900 × min temperature (°C)
+ 0.0847 × sunshine hours / day
− 0.6440 × solar noon elevation (°)
+ 3.8484 × sin(2π · month / 12)
+ 0.7858 × cos(2π · month / 12)
R² = 0.870 fitted on 190 days
The sin/cos month terms capture any residual seasonal pattern not already explained by temperature, sunshine, or solar elevation — for example, behavioural differences between months at the same temperature.
Max temperature is excluded: it is closely correlated with mean temperature, so including both would cause multicollinearity without adding explanatory power.
Daily kWh = 7.2981 (intercept)
+ 0.1222 × hdd15 = max(0, 15.5 − mean temp)
− 0.0131 × min temperature (°C)
− 0.0347 × sunshine hours / day
+ 0.0361 × solar noon elevation (°)
+ 0.6290 × sin(2π · month / 12)
+ 2.7609 × cos(2π · month / 12)
R² = 0.188 fitted on 191 days
🔥 Gas
Daily kWh = 6.2729 (intercept)
+ 6.1581 × hdd15 = max(0, 15.5 − mean temp)
+ 0.4900 × min temperature (°C)
+ 0.0847 × sunshine hours / day
− 0.6440 × solar noon elevation (°)
+ 3.8484 × sin(2π · month / 12)
+ 0.7858 × cos(2π · month / 12)
R² = 0.870 fitted on 190 days
The sin/cos month terms capture any residual seasonal pattern not already explained by temperature, sunshine, or solar elevation — for example, behavioural differences between months at the same temperature.
Max temperature is excluded: it is closely correlated with mean temperature, so including both would cause multicollinearity without adding explanatory power.
Reference: 30-year average conditions (1991–2020, Exeter, UK) ▸
| Month | Sunshine (hrs/day) |
Mean temp (°C) |
Min temp (°C) |
Max temp (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 2.1 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 8.0 |
| Feb | 3.4 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 8.2 |
| Mar | 4.7 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 10.0 |
| Apr | 6.7 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 12.4 |
| May | 7.3 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 15.4 |
| Jun | 7.4 | 14.7 | 11.2 | 18.0 |
| Jul | 7.0 | 16.6 | 13.2 | 19.9 |
| Aug | 6.2 | 16.4 | 13.3 | 19.7 |
| Sep | 5.2 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 17.5 |
| Oct | 3.8 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 14.2 |
| Nov | 2.6 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 10.8 |
| Dec | 1.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 8.4 |
Source: Open-Meteo.com ERA5 reanalysis — CC BY 4.0. WMO 1991–2020 standard reference period. Sunshine hours are estimated using the FAO-56 Angstrom-Prescott formula (derived from daily shortwave radiation vs. extraterrestrial radiation); ERA5 pre-computed sunshine duration tends to overestimate in cloudy climates.
📋 Tariff Details
⚡ Electricity Tariff History
8 Jan 2026 to 8 Jan 2027E-1R-OE-FIX-12M-25-11-25-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 21.98p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 20.93p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 53.07p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 50.55p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.5307 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £193.72 |
7 Oct 2024 to 7 Oct 2024E-1R-VAR-22-11-01-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 23.44p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 22.32p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 56.64p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 53.94p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.5664 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £206.72 |
7 Oct 2024 to 8 Jan 2026E-1R-OE-FIX-15M-24-09-06-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 25.48p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 24.27p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 65.12p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 62.02p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.6512 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £237.69 |
7 Oct 2023 to 7 Oct 2024E-1R-LOYAL-FIX-12M-23-07-25-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 23.44p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 22.32p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 56.64p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 53.94p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.5664 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £206.72 |
7 Oct 2021 to 7 Oct 2023E-1R-SUPER-GREEN-24M-V2-21-08-17-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 20.91p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 19.91p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 25.66p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 24.44p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2566 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £93.67 |
1 Jun 2021 to 7 Oct 2021E-1R-SUPER-GREEN-12M-20-02-12-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 20.91p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 19.91p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 21.78p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 20.74p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2178 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £79.49 |
🔥 Gas Tariff History
8 Jan 2026 to 8 Jan 2027G-1R-OE-FIX-12M-25-11-25-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 5.16p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 4.91p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 32.68p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 31.13p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.3268 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £119.30 |
7 Oct 2024 to 7 Oct 2024G-1R-VAR-22-11-01-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 6.37p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 6.06p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 27.47p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 26.16p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2747 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £100.26 |
7 Oct 2024 to 8 Jan 2026G-1R-OE-FIX-15M-24-09-06-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 5.49p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 5.22p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 28.91p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 27.53p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2891 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £105.51 |
7 Oct 2023 to 7 Oct 2024G-1R-LOYAL-FIX-12M-23-07-25-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 6.37p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 6.06p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 27.47p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 26.16p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2747 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £100.26 |
7 Oct 2021 to 7 Oct 2023G-1R-SUPER-GREEN-24M-V2-21-08-17-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 4.87p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 4.64p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 26.59p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 25.32p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.2659 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £97.04 |
1 Jun 2021 to 7 Oct 2021G-1R-SUPER-GREEN-12M-20-02-12-L
| Unit rate (p/kWh, incl. VAT) | 4.87p |
| Unit rate (p/kWh, excl. VAT) | 4.64p |
| Standing charge (p/day, incl. VAT) | 17.85p |
| Standing charge (p/day, excl. VAT) | 17.00p |
| Standing charge (£/day, incl. VAT) | £0.1785 |
| Standing charge annualised (£/year) | £65.15 |